Trump: women will have to travel to other states for abortions

[EquALLity]

I think one of the worst things about this election is how the Supreme Court is going to go back to being conservative. All kinds of things are in jeopardy here that nobody ever considered before.

Roe V Wade? Trump has just said he'll nominate Supreme Court justices to overturn it.
They're going to overturn Roe V Wade.
Everyone thought theses issues were totally settled... nope.

At least he said marriage equality was a settled issue. But I don't think he's going to go out of his way to make sure justices he appoints are correct on that issue. It's going to be hard to find someone who is pro-marriage equality and anti-choice.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/14/politics/trump-gay-marriage-abortion-supreme-court/index.html

If he overturns Citizens United, though, and the other Supreme Court cases that have corrupted the government... I'll eat my hat.
It seems very much like he'll do the OPPOSITE, though.

[brimstoneSalad]

Returning it to a state issue could be a problem for conservatives.
As soon as abortion is banned in certain states, the state governments doing it will be overturned and control will be returned to Democrats.

It's good for conservatives for this to be a federal issue. It not only galvanizes their support among pro-lifers (that support will scatter if Roe V Wade is overturned), but it frees state republican governments from accountability from pro-choice voters because those republican governors "can't do anything", reducing the strength of their opposition.

If Roe V Wade is overturned, the country will be motivated to finally solve the issue properly (and probably permanently) through a constitutional amendment once the tide turns. A supreme court ruling isn't the right way to guarantee this right.

Overturning Roe v Wade would be a pyrrhic victory for republicans.

[EquALLity]

Returning it to a state issue could be a problem for conservatives.
As soon as abortion is banned in certain states, the state governments doing it will be overturned and control will be returned to Democrats.

It's good for conservatives for this to be a federal issue. It not only galvanizes their support among pro-lifers (that support will scatter if Roe V Wade is overturned), but it frees state republican governments from accountability from pro-choice voters because those republican governors "can't do anything", reducing the strength of their opposition.

If Roe V Wade is overturned, the country will be motivated to finally solve the issue properly (and probably permanently) through a constitutional amendment once the tide turns. A supreme court ruling isn't the right way to guarantee this right.

Overturning Roe v Wade would be a pyrrhic victory for republicans.

I seriously doubt it, unfortunately. Why would that happen? Most people in red states are republican and against abortion.

A Constitutional Amendment will take years, though. How many women will suffer in the meantime?
This kind of thing mostly impacts poor women who can't necessarily travel to a blue state to get an abortion.

[brimstoneSalad]

http://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/

Pro-choice has a majority of public opinion in 29-30 states.

For an amendment, 34 states are necessary, then 38 to ratify.

If you count the undecided as pro-choice (which they likely will become if it's outlawed), the pro-lifers have around 14 states. And three of those would sit at only 50% pro-life.
Public opinion doesn't have to shift very much on this issue at all to make a constitutional amendment a very real possibility.
(It has already shifted a little since that Pew survey I linked to, but I didn't find another state-by-state breakdown:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/03/women-drive-increase-in-democratic-support-for-legal-abortion/ )

And that's even IF Trump can appoint a pro-life judge who will strike down Roe V Wade. The Democrats may filibuster for the next four years, based on the Republican precedent set by not considering Obama's appointment.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbobelian/2016/11/10/will-democrats-be-able-to-block-trumps-supreme-court-nominations/
It will be tricky. We'll have to see how this plays out.

It's very possible that Trump will select a more moderate judge in order to get him or her confirmed.

[brimstoneSalad]

I seriously doubt it, unfortunately. Why would that happen? Most people in red states are republican and against abortion.

There are only a few states where a true majority oppose abortion, but that doesn't necessarily even matter: it's numbers AND motivation that matter.
Having the law changed and making abortion illegal will motivate liberals to push back hard, both financially and by getting out the vote.
Places like Texas could go blue to overturn abortion restriction if it came to it (although Texas doesn't have a trigger law).

Remember, only six states have "trigger laws" that would make abortion illegal as soon as Roe V Wade was overturned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States_by_state

Colorado, Illinois, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, Utah, Virginia

In most of those states, they have more people who favor abortion being legal than illegal:

Colorado - 59% believe it should be legal, that government would be ousted in the next election, or the law would be overturned by the sitting government.
Illinois - 56% believe it should be legal; same as Colorado, we're looking at a quick regime change

Louisiana - 39% think it should be legal (57% think it should be illegal). This is one where it will be hard to fix.

Missouri - 45% think it should be legal (50% think it should be illegal). This will be a more difficult battle, but undecided should be won over pretty easily.

Ohio - 48% think it should be legal (but only 47% think it should be illegal), this shouldn't be that hard to overturn.

Utah - 47% think it should be legal (51% illegal) This one will be hard.

Virginia - 55% think it should be legal. This will be easy.


Only Louisiana and Utah will be very hard cases. Missouri might be a hard case.
That's three states that will likely have abortion illegal for some time.

A Constitutional Amendment will take years, though. How many women will suffer in the meantime?
This kind of thing mostly impacts poor women who can't necessarily travel to a blue state to get an abortion.

Abortifactants will still be relatively easy to come by. Early on, it isn't very dangerous.
We'll also probably see the rise of abortion shuttle services run by liberal non-profits to take low income women across state lines for safe affordable abortions.

I'm not sure how many will suffer, it depends on how long it will take to respond and fix the problem, and how much non-profits step up in the mean time. I'm more worried about the children suffering by being brought into a world where they are not wanted, or born with deformities and disabilities.

[PsYcHo]

Don't buy into the fear. I'm concerned about his supreme court justices as well, but to overturn Roe V. Wade would be political suicide for the Republicans. They can bitch about it morally, but legislatively they wouldn't dare change it. Trump's ego will guarantee that he will seek a second term, and appointing justices so polarizing would ensure a one term presidency.

I still stand by that he said a lot of unpopular things to convince the low information right to vote for him. Don't panic before the fire.