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Now that all the nominees are determined, who do you think will win the Presidency?
I didn't put in Jill Stein or Darrel Castle or any of the other candidates who really don't have a chance so that I could fit more options for the candidates who do.
At this point, I think pretty strongly that Hillary Clinton will win based on the polls. Polls do change, but... Oh, wait. Trump is beating Hillary in a new poll. Never mind.
Well, she was ahead of him for awhile. I guess it's back to very close, though.
I still think she'll win, moderately, because she's been ahead for awhile, and Trump really doesn't seem able to not to constantly get himself tons of negative attention.
EquALLity wrote:Who voted for that there's a strong chance Hillary will win? And why?
I did. I need to in order to sleep at night.
Just kidding. I'm somewhere ay 70% certainty or so, given polls and some amount of trust in the American people not to fuck up. i also think Johnson will be a spoiler for Trump (much more than Stein will be for Clinton).
"I advocate infinite effort on behalf of very finite goals, for example correcting this guy's grammar."
- David Frum
EquALLity wrote:I didn't put in Jill Stein or Darrel Castle or any of the other candidates who really don't have a chance so that I could fit more options for the candidates who do.
EquALLity wrote:Who voted for that there's a strong chance Hillary will win? And why?
I did. I need to in order to sleep at night.
Just kidding. I'm somewhere ay 70% certainty or so, given polls and some amount of trust in the American people not to fuck up. i also think Johnson will be a spoiler for Trump (much more than Stein will be for Clinton).
Well, Hillary's lead is shrinking nationally, though she still has the important swing states.
I think I agree about Johnson, though some anti-establishment Bernie supporters may go to him also.
EquALLity wrote:Who voted for that there's a strong chance Hillary will win? And why?
I did. I need to in order to sleep at night.
Just kidding. I'm somewhere ay 70% certainty or so, given polls and some amount of trust in the American people not to fuck up. i also think Johnson will be a spoiler for Trump (much more than Stein will be for Clinton).
Well, Hillary's lead is shrinking nationally, though she still has the important swing states.
I'm not talking about the most recent few polls; they constantly swing. I'm talking about the general trend, which seems to be strongly in Clinton's favor. It's like climate change; this year's winter may be colder than last year's winter, but the trend is upwards nonetheless. (not a perfect analogy, I am of course not implying polls are anywhere near as reliable as temperature measurements)
EquALLity wrote:I think I agree about Johnson, though some anti-establishment Bernie supporters may go to him also.
Of course, and many of them will vote for Stein. Do note many of the Bernie supporters going for Johnson may have been third party voters anyway, or even republicans. I think Trump will suffer most because he is similar to Johnson in policy, and Johnson is much more popular than Stein, who is somewhat similar to Clinton. I don't even remember the conservative candidate's name, but whatever small difference his party might make will also be at the detriment of Trump.
"I advocate infinite effort on behalf of very finite goals, for example correcting this guy's grammar."
- David Frum
EquALLity wrote:I didn't put in Jill Stein or Darrel Castle or any of the other candidates who really don't have a chance so that I could fit more options for the candidates who do.
Apparently that includes Gary Johnson.
I think Gary has a real chance, because he is close to getting into the debates (IMO you have no chance without the debates), & because Clinton & Trump are so disliked that almost any other candidate could beat them.
miniboes wrote:
I'm not talking about the most recent few polls; they constantly swing. I'm talking about the general trend, which seems to be strongly in Clinton's favor. It's like climate change; this year's winter may be colder than last year's winter, but the trend is upwards nonetheless. (not a perfect analogy, I am of course not implying polls are anywhere near as reliable as temperature measurements)
Ah. Well, I hope you're right!
miniboes wrote:Of course, and many of them will vote for Stein. Do note many of the Bernie supporters going for Johnson may have been third party voters anyway, or even republicans. I think Trump will suffer most because he is similar to Johnson in policy, and Johnson is much more popular than Stein, who is somewhat similar to Clinton. I don't even remember the conservative candidate's name, but whatever small difference his party might make will also be at the detriment of Trump.
I agree.
I think Johnson has the potential to get a lot of the establishment republican votes.
miniboes wrote:I think Trump will suffer most because he is similar to Johnson in policy, and Johnson is much more popular than Stein, who is somewhat similar to Clinton.
I disagree, I don't think there's much similarity between Johnson and Trump in policy. Johnson favors free trade; most of Trump's support is coming from protectionist policies. Johnson is also pretty socially liberal; I think the libertarian party is pushing for the liberal independents. He may be more of a threat to Clinton than Stein is.
miniboes wrote:I think Trump will suffer most because he is similar to Johnson in policy, and Johnson is much more popular than Stein, who is somewhat similar to Clinton.
I disagree, I don't think there's much similarity between Johnson and Trump in policy. Johnson favors free trade; most of Trump's support is coming from protectionist policies. Johnson is also pretty socially liberal; I think the libertarian party is pushing for the liberal independents. He may be more of a threat to Clinton than Stein is.
Trade is one issue, and Johnson has the position of establishment republicans on it, which makes me think Johnson appeals in that regard to republicans who feel disaffected with Donald Trump. But again, that's one issue.
That's true about him being socially liberal, but I think the more establishment republicans who hate Trump would overlook that. After all, Trump's supporters overlooked Trump's support of transgender people using the bathroom they want to.
The liberal independents who supported Bernie seem unlikely to go to Johnson. A big part of Bernie's campaign was trade, and Bernie favored protectionism. They also disagree about pretty much all economic issues, and solving income inequality through liberal policies was at the heart of Bernie's campaign.
Never mind.
