Philosophical Vegan Forum

So this seems to be going down pretty quickly...

How to get impeached:
1) obstruct justice by firing the head of the agency investigating you
2) say you fired him for something you applauded him for at the time
3) contradict yourself the next day and say it was to obstruct justice
4) have a memo released revealing that you literally asked the FBI leader to end the investigation

I'm kidding with the poll, he's not going to be impeached that quickly. I honestly believe there is a good chance he will be impeached, though. What do you think?

I'm not sure.

Bookies are giving 60% odds that he's impeached, but that's based on market forces.

I think the question comes down to public perception, particularly in the Republican base. Whether they'll impeach him or not depends on how it will look on their record and play out for re-election.

Republicans are already struggling in the polls, even in some very red states, thanks to Trump (as I predicted ).
The trouble is that if the base is split on this, if they impeach him, they're sure to lose the state because not very many democrats will switch sides just because of that (would you vote for a Republican who impeached Trump and gave the presidency to Pence as a thank you despite their other bad policies?), and half the base won't turn out for them.

You'd need overwhelming support for it in the base, and as it stands only about a quarter of Republicans disapprove of him. There aren't enough independents to make up that difference. As a national average, the numbers aren't there.

Of course, it's not the national average that matters. Democrats will be on board, but you'll have to find enough Republicans to join them. That's a little tough.
There are some more liberal leaning states where you might find the Republican base more decided against Trump.

I guess you'd have to look at the polling in those states where Republicans are pulling away from Trump.
Even for the terrible healthcare bill they found enough support to pass it (by one), so it seems unlikely enough will turn on Trump to pull off an impeachment.

It's true that they can also shape the narrative after impeachment, but Republicans are big on Loyalty, so seeing their Representatives turn on Trump will probably put anybody who supported him (and even some who didn't) off.
The Republican party is probably a ship that will go down in flames in two years. At least, that's my guess. I wouldn't put money on it, though, stranger things have happened.