2020 Climate Change Good News

[Jamie in Chile]

Neither 2020 or climate change are topics usually associated with positivity and yet if you combine the two funnily enough you do have a good news story with Trump losing to Biden, China making its policies a bit less bad, and other things. See the link for an article I wrote for more:

https://foxesinchile.wordpress.com/2021 ... good-news/

[Red]

New blog of yours? Nice.

Some good stuff in there:

Xi Jinping, the leader of China, told the UN climate assembly in September that China would peak emissions “before 2030” rather than “about 2030” and look to achieve carbon neutrality by about 2060. This is not great because we should be cutting emissions right away, but at least it´s not as bad as before. Xi is also looking to get a bigger role for China internationally, and I suspect he would go further if other countries including the US also agree to do so.

From what I know China doesn't have a great track record acting proactively on many international mandates, but, in my unfounded and unprofessional opinion, if I were President, I think I would tell China that I would increase trade with them if they switch to cleaner energy by building more nuclear power plants. Now is that a realistic or good idea? IDK I'm just throwing stuff at the wall.

China is better on Nuclear than much of the world, but still is probably the most environmentally unfriendly countries. I think offering more trade with them if they switch to cleaner energy would be a good deal. More jobs and economic stimulation for China, much less pollution, win-win. Again though, I have no experience in Foreign Policy or Economics, so this idea might just be a joke.

In July Joe Biden announced that as President he would spend $2 trillion over four years on climate change (about $1515 per person in US per year), better than his previous policy of $1.7 trillion over ten years (about $515 per person in US per year). The plan includes green electricity by 2035 and promoting electric vehicles.
Donald Trump, a climate change denier, lost the election.

This. I think out of all the Democratic candidates Biden had by far the best energy policy. Harris is a lot weaker on it, so if Biden dies or resigns (which unfortunately I do not see as unlikely), that might be a bit of a setback, but I think Biden also has the ability to convince her, his track record is great on that front.

Also, let's hope Trump doesn't take back the White House next election cycle. Speaking of which, as shitty of a President as Trump was, I do have to hand it to him on this: https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/10/2113 ... s-spending

I do mark this as a huge plus on Trump's overall horrible record, but I'm sure Hillary (and now Biden) will have done the same, likely more on Nuclear than Trump, so it's overall a fairly moot point.

The fossil fuel divestment movement made some progress and could be about to really take off in 2021.

I'm not sure how significant this is. While the movement very likely has done some progress, I highly doubt it's enough to make a dent. The decrease in emissions was almost entirely due to the lockdowns (and you later list), if we didn't have a pandemic, I'm pretty sure it would have been business as usual for the fossil fuel companies. Too many factors, hard to tell. It might be more effective to get folks to adjust on an individual level to curb fossil fuel use to actually influence the demand, or simply just getting the government to invest in nuclear (which would mostly defeat the purpose)? Hard call.

Tesla´s share price increased 7x, a sure sign that fossil fuel cars are on the way out.

I'm not sure if it's useful to look at just Tesla. I think it's better to look at how more companies are on their way to unveiling new electric cars to allow for more competition and decrease the prices.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmJAeKLVVTY

Self-driving cars are on their way too, we'll see what the free-market does about that. If we're gonna be using the model of just having a bunch of cars driving around, if both electric and fossil-fuel cars are accessible, I think people are more likely to use electric, similar to how a lot of people will choose a plant-based burger over the real thing, but that's just a guess.

This reminds me of something I wrote like nine days ago:

Now to get to the depressing part. I’m gonna drop a serious red-pill or black pill or whatever color pill right now, and embrace a bit of a doomer mindset, but I don’t think that we’re gonna stop climate change. I mean, at the rate we’re going, it seems to be an inevitable disaster, and it doesn’t look like the governments are going to be able to do much about it, because I mean c’mon, how often is government ever proactive about anything? As of last year, the UN reported that zero of their Sustainable Development Goals were achieved. Almost all countries that are in the Paris Agreement aren’t meeting their quotas. Most countries are still relying pretty heavily on fossil fuels. These climate conferences we’ve been having aren’t really achieving all that much. Unfortunately, in this day and age, mostly thanks to Al Gore, it’s an issue that is divided by politics, not science, meaning a lot of gridlock and stifles in progress. I mean I hope the government does something, but I’m not really expecting anything. I mean, what do the people expect, causing all these problems and expecting the government to fix all of them.

I think relying on the government to do something about climate change is a... gamble. I think vegan activism would go further to reduce emissions, as well as solving other issues too.

[Jamie in Chile]

I think the government has to play a key role in fixing climate change because you can't expect people to suddenly become more altruistic or less resistant to change. Or for the pace of technological development to suddenly accelerate. But if government decrees a large carbon tax it's very helpful. The government has to change the system, change the incentives.

If I was Biden I would say to Xi Jinping, look we want 2 things from China.

1 Better human rights and democracy and freedom within China - and by a large amount, not just some token early release of a dissident in jail from time to time.
2 Better and bolder action on climate change.

I would say to Xi that if they deliver on both then we move into a world into which the US and China are partners with deepening ties and become the two world leaders on any issue.

That if he delivers neither then the US would look to add more tarrifs/carbon tax to Chinese products and use his position in the white house to encourage companies to invest elsewhere, steadily moving more US manufacturing and consumption out of China and into other places like other Asian countries, Latin America, and within the US. But that this would be done more steadily and in a calm and respectful way.

I would probably be very respectful in the way that I handle these discussion. For starters, you approach the climate change discussion by acknowledging that the US has a higher per capita carbon footprint than China and therefore must sign up for faster cuts (perhaps 10% a year vs 6% a year for China). As well as acknowledging that the US is a richer country and therefore needs to lead on helping poorer countries develop renewable energy with aid. While China is not expected to do this.

And similarly I would approach the human rights and democracy discussion by admitting that democracy isn't perfect, that there any many flaws, and suggesting that China develops its own better system of Chinese democracy rather than copying the West. And explaining to Xi what the flaws of the system are in the West.

While it's very unlikely that China will make progress on point 1 under its current leader, I think it's the right policy for the longer term.

[Red]

I think the government has to play a key role in fixing climate change because you can't expect people to suddenly become more altruistic or less resistant to change. Or for the pace of technological development to suddenly accelerate. But if government decrees a large carbon tax it's very helpful. The government has to change the system, change the incentives.

The people have to do something about it to. I don't see it as very likely that they'll both do their part sufficiently.

Government is notoriously incompetent, although with Biden I have a bit more hope for. Still no guarantee.

If I was Biden I would say to Xi Jinping, look we want 2 things from China.

1 Better human rights and democracy and freedom within China - and by a large amount, not just some token early release of a dissident in jail from time to time.
2 Better and bolder action on climate change.

We would probably need to triple our current trade flow with them if we want that to happen.

I would probably also extend offers like this to Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Russia, India, etc.

I would say to Xi that if they deliver on both then we move into a world into which the US and China are partners with deepening ties and become the two world leaders on any issue.

That if he delivers neither then the US would look to add more tarrifs/carbon tax to Chinese products and use his position in the white house to encourage companies to invest elsewhere, steadily moving more US manufacturing and consumption out of China and into other places like other Asian countries, Latin America, and within the US. But that this would be done more steadily and in a calm and respectful way.

Tariffs are very bad for economic growth, and China is still a developing country with such a large population. Look at Trump's tariffs for example. I think the US should be trading with as many countries as reasonably possible anyway.

It would probably just be better to reduce trade with them than institute a tariff.

And similarly I would approach the human rights and democracy discussion by admitting that democracy isn't perfect, that there any many flaws, and suggesting that China develops its own better system of Chinese democracy rather than copying the West. And explaining to Xi what the flaws of the system are in the West.

Good luck getting the leaders of China to give up power. Once they have it, they won't give it up. Just what happens. They'll probably institute *just enough* democracy for other countries to give it a pass. Who knows though. It'll definitely happen eventually, but not any time soon.

[Jamie in Chile]

One way to transition to democracy is to get the current leaders to agree to a steady transition to democracy that doesn´t really get going until they leave.

I personally think we have to have a carbon tax to fight climate change. A carbon tax without tariffs on countries that don´t have their own carbon tax doesn´t work, because it means your own country´s businesses are undercut at home by foreign companies. So I see tariffs on countries that don´t have a carbon tax as a must.

[brimstoneSalad]

That's a good pickmeup. End of year good news summaries are always nice.

@Jamie in Chile can I edit your first post to embed the full text in case some people can't access wordpress or they ever end their free service?

[Jamie in Chile]

ok sure

[Jamie in Chile]

A new article I wrote today about climate change and social norms

https://foxesinchile.wordpress.com/2021 ... -contract/

[Jebus]

A new article I wrote today about climate change and social norms

https://foxesinchile.wordpress.com/2021 ... -contract/

Excellent article. Well written with good points.

[Jamie in Chile]

Thanks a lot. If you or anyone else liked this post consider sharing it elsewhere, e.g. personal social media. Hopefully we can inspire someone who has already cut their carbon footprint to become a trend setter in speaker out for wider change, or inspire someone who has not yet done so to cut their carbon footprint.